The Urban Developer’s Housing Market Intelligence: Brisbane

Welcome to latest edition of The Urban Developer’s housing market pulse check for Brisbane.

This resource, to be updated monthly, will collate and examine the economic levers pushing and pulling Brisbane’s housing market.

Combining market research, rolling indices and expert market opinion, this evolving hub will act as a pulse check for those wanting to take a closer look at the movements across the market.

So, what were the highlights across Brisbane’s property market throughout December 2020?

December 2020

Australia’s housing market finished the year on a strong footing with Corelogic’s national home value index rising a further 1 per cent in December; the third consecutive month-on-month rise following a 2.1 per cent drop in dwelling values between April and September.

At the year's end Corelogic reported a 4.14 per cent lift in its Brisbane home value index over the year, with houses up 4.6 per cent and units 2.3 per cent, year on year.

The current median value for a Brisbane house is $577,638 with prices up 0.7 per cent across the month while the current median value for a Brisbane apartment price is $390,758.

Brisbane is also showing strength across the upper quartile, with dwelling values up 1.25 per cent in December compared with a 0.94 per cent rise in values across the lower quartile of the market.

Westpac updated its property forecasts, with Brisbane real estate prices tipped to surge 20 per cent between 2022 and 2023.

ANZ economists forecast Brisbane house prices will rise by 9.5 per cent next year, as low interest rates and government stimulus flow through the economy while CBA updated its forecasts, projecting a strong rebound in prices across the second half of 2021.

Corelogic - Home Property Value Index

^Source: CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index - December

Moody's - Housing Affordability Index

^Source: Moody's Investor Services - October

Knight Frank - Prestige Property Index

^Source: Knight Frank Prestige Property Index - November

Brisbane House Prices Hit Record High
Brisbane’s median house price has reached a record-breaking $720,000...

Housing Market Downturn Short-Lived
Prices are on the upswing after what was one of the smaller downturns in history...

December 2020

Plummeting stock levels and a looming interstate buyer swarm sparked local upgraders to dominate high-end auctions across Brisbane.

Auction clearance rates have remained consistently across the final few months of 2020 in Brisbane, but not reaching the same levels of capital cities such as Melbourne and Sydney.

Across the December quarter, Brisbane recorded a clearance rate of 53.1 per cent, compared to a 45 per cent clearance rate in the December quarter of 2019.

Leading into January, the total number of homes for sale across the Brisbane was down almost 18 per cent year on year, according to figures from Corelogic.

Corelogic - Auction Clearance Rates

^Source: Corelogic Auction Clearance Rates - December (results for final two weeks of the year not available)

Property Prices Make a Comeback
Australian home values have officially increased for the first time since Covid-19 started...

 
House Prices Surge Towards Pre-Covid Highs
National house prices could surpass pre-Covid levels in early 2021...

December 2020

Unprecedented rates of interstate and overseas migration have sparked one of Brisbane’s strongest rental markets in a decade, with the city clocking record-high median prices that, in parts, are outstripping Melbourne.

Rental prices for houses rose by $10 to $425 a week during the December quarter, with units following close behind at $400 per week—up from $395 three months earlier.

Across Brisbane, median rents are up by $15 a week compared to December 2019, with the vacancy rates down by one percentage point over the past 12 months to a tight 1.9 per cent.

SQM - Residential Rental Vacancy Rate

^Source: SQM Research - December

SQM - Rental stock on market

^Source: SQM Research - December

SQM - Monthly Rents Index

^Source: SQM Research - December

Gold Coast Records Lowest Rental Vacancies
The Gold Coast market has seen a dramatic tightening in rental stock available...

Housing Approvals Hit New High
Building approvals for private sector houses increased for the fourth consecutive month...

December 2020

Interstate migration and government stimulus measures have helped boost new homes sales and building approvals across south-east Queensland.

Investor lending remains relatively modest overall, at a national level, although based on our own level of inquiry, there is definitely a lot of investor interest circling Brisbane at the moment.

The latest lending figures show that owner-occupier lending has risen to historical highs, with first home buyer numbers in Queensland up 70 per cent year-on-year.

Melbourne's net loss of 8,000 people in the June quarter was its largest quarterly net loss on record, while Sydney's net loss of 6,000 was its smallest quarterly net loss since September 2016. By contrast, Brisbane gained 6,750 people.

ABS - Building Approvals

^Australian Bureau of Statistics - November (Suspension of trend series between May 2020 and Jul 2020 due to Covid-19)

^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Reference period November (Next Release 03/02/2021)

ABS - Lending

^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics - November

ABS - Interstate Migration

^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics - June

December 2020

Policy Updates

The Home Builder scheme will continue until the end of March in a bid to prevent a major decline in construction activity.

Read more: HomeBuilder Gains Eleventh Hour Extension

Queensland faces a “hard road” over the next four years as the state recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, Treasurer Cameron Dick says.

Read more: Queensland Budget Announcement

The central bank, which introduced a package of measures at its latest meeting, cut the cash rate target to 0.1 per cent—the lowest in Australia’s history, in its bid to support a recovery.

Read more: RBA Cuts Interest Rate in Bid to Build Economy

December 2020

Brisbane Housing Market: Experts Weigh In

Tim Lawless
Head of Research
Corelogic

“Containing the spread of the virus has been critical to Australia’s economic and housing market resilience and Brisbane housing values have risen by 1.1 per cent over the month of December.

“In fact, Brisbane housing markets are now at a record high in terms of housing value.

“It really highlights how popular some of the lifestyle markets have become around the country.”

Felicity Emmett
Senior Economist
ANZ

“Where things are a bit different, or where there is a bit more certainty now is the economy is entering 2021 with really quite a lot of momentum,"

“If anything, the risks to our forecast for the [near] 9 per cent gain in house prices next year, are probably tilted to the upside.

“Queensland's final demand in the September quarter was higher than a year ago—it's the only state for that to be the case.”

Adam Empringham
Sales Director
Image Property

“Lifestyle properties, including those with water views, semi-rural or acreage, have continued to be in strong demand in Brisbane and on the Sunshine Coast.

“The lifestyle market is also being driven by the interstate market through the fact that it's very, very good value for money by comparison.

“So, that's going to be a key market to watch, especially on the Sunshine Coast.

“Marketplaces on the outskirts of cities are also going to be ones to watch, so, areas like Brisbane’s bayside suburbs where water comes into play, where semi-rural comes into play.”