Strong tailwinds will bolster the Australian economy through the second half of the year, but macro-prudential measures are likely to be introduced to ease house price pressures in 2022.
ANZ senior economist Felicity Emmett said she expected the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) would introduce macroprudential measures to slow house price growth into 2022, when the impact of low population growth would be realised.
“Housing construction and equipment investment are likely to turn lower in late 2022 as the activity brought forward by government incentives dries up … low population growth will also weigh on growth,” Emmett said.
ANZ forecasts indicated strong house price growth this year, supported by low mortgage rates, and it was expected to continue for an “extended period”.
Emmett said all signs pointed to strong house pricing gains through 2021.
She said monetary policy would continue to be “extremely accommodative” with plans to keep the cash rate down at 0.1 per cent until at least 2024.
“Fiscal policy will be winding back, but measures put in place to support housing and investment will support growth in 2021 and early 2022,” Emmett said.
“Global growth should be particularly supportive, with massive fiscal stimulus in the US driving strong growth there and supporting a robust global recovery.
“This should also help underpin elevated commodity prices. All of these factors will provide positive impetus for Australian growth.”
The end of JobKeeper at the end of this month will be problematic for the economy. ANZ’s research report for the second quarter indicated they expected between 100,000 and 150,000 people would be out of work when the scheme ends.