NSW would need to build 75 per cent more homes than are forecast to be built over the next five years to keep up with demand and avoid a worsening housing crisis.
According to media reports, the state is expected to deliver just 36,000 new homes a year for the next five years when it needs 62,800—a shortfall that planning minister Paul Scully described as “greater than we thought”.
Documents obtained by one media outlet reveal a state government committed to increasing the supply of housing via land rezonings. The documents include briefings to housing minister Rose Jackson in which 11 suburbs were prioritised for state-led rezoning by the middle of 2024. The suburbs are shown in the map below.
The priority areas leverage off the significant infrastructure investment in Sydney, including the $7.3-billion Sydney Metro Northwest completed in May, 2019.
The 11 suburbs feature three within the Sydney Metro Northwest catchment—Marsden Park North, Riverstone East, and Schofields West. The suburbs all fall within Blacktown LGA—an area forecast by the Department of planning to supply the highest proportion of new homes of any LGA in Sydney to 2028.
The demand for development sites in the priority areas is expected to increase post announcement of the imminent rezoning. That demand was made clear by the August 19, 2023, auction of a 2ha parcel at Orchard Hills. The rural-zoned property, which does not benefit from a draft indicative layout plan (ILP), sold for $15.05 million—nearly $3 million above reserve. A further uplift in land values in the priority areas is expected on formal rezoning.
Previous state governments delayed the rezoning of land in Sydney’s north-west due to flooding concerns—particularly concerns around the evacuation of residents in flood prone Richmond.
The three areas in Sydney’s north-west earmarked under these fast-tracked zones are not flood-affected and are proximate to existing amenity.
The Draft ILP for Riverstone East (which includes Rouse Hill) has not yet been released.
The Draft ILPs for Marsden Park North and Schofields West were released in 2019. All three precincts are expected to be rezoned in the next two years, leading to an increase in demand for sites and pricing.
[PICTURED TOP: The NSW Health $300-million Rouse Hill Hospital now under construction.]
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