The Urban Developer
AdvertiseEventsWebinars
Urbanity
Awards
Sign In
Membership
Latest
Menu
Location
Sector
Category
Content
Type
Newsletters
Untitled design (8)
FULL PROGRAM RELEASED FOR URBANITY-25 CONNECTING PROPERTY LEADERS ACROSS THE ASIA PACIFIC
FULL PROGRAM RELEASED FOR URBANITY-25 WHERE THE PROPERTY INDUSTRY CONNECTS
VIEW FULL AGENDADETAILS
TheUrbanDeveloper
Follow
About
About Us
Membership
Awards
Events
Webinars
Listings
Resources
Terms & Conditions
Commenting Policy
Privacy Policy
Republishing Guidelines
Editorial Charter
Complaints Handling Policy
Contact
General Enquiries
Advertise
Contribution Enquiry
Project Submission
Membership Enquiry
Newsletter
Stay up to date and with the latest news, projects, deals and features.
Subscribe
ADVERTISEMENT
SHARE
16
print
Print
ResidentialRenee McKeownThu 25 Mar 21

Experts Eye End of HomeBuilder

165ee195-a986-4438-b0e7-3d3ed24d16a1

Experts predict the housing market is at a tipping point with the end of HomeBuilder looming on March 31 and international border closures stagnating growth.

The hugely popular government stimulus package attracted more than 80,000 applications, generating $18 billion in housing activity, pushing the housing market to new heights.

However, for the first time since World War I, Australia’s population dropped; due to a lack of international arrivals, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics results.

REA group director of economic research Cameron Kusher said they had seen unseasonably strong transaction activity in recent months but this could soon change.

“HomeBuilder has driven an increase in demand from first home buyers while tough rental market conditions due to the closure of international borders has led to relatively low growth in enquiry from investors,” Kusher said.

“With HomeBuilder set to end at the end of March 2021, and investor enquiry rising, it will be interesting to see how these trends evolve over the remainder of this year.”

Annual population growth

^Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Annual Population Growth to Sept 2020

Victorian Planning Authority outer Melbourne director Paul Cassidy said the greenfield market was particularly affected by the HomeBuilder scheme.

“We all know that it’s rebounded strongly and running hot at the moment,” Cassidy said at The Urban Developer Pakenham East webinar.

“We don't know where it’s going to head, whether it is steady or a bring forward of demand but it is certainly something to watch.”

National greenfield sales boomed between 2013 to 2018, before dropping markedly, then the HomeBuilder stimulus was announced.

One of Australia's largest private residential developers Satterley Property Group followed this strong growth and they have some confidence moving forward, according to group general manager Jack Hoffman.

“There’s an argument that perhaps there’s some pent up demand from those couple of years of lower volumes,” Hoffman said.

“But undeniably there's been somewhat of a pull forward by the stimulus of the government.

“A lot of the sales made over the past three or four months have not been motivated by government stimulus [as they are ineligible].

“Despite that, we are seeing really strong demand and that gives us some confidence about what will happen after the homebuilder grant ends.”

National greenfield lot sales from 2010 to 2020

^Source: Victoria State Government

Hoffmann said the effects of the lack of international immigration and population growth were bound to have an impact at some time.

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics results show the country’s population grew by only 0.9 per cent in the year to September 2020 and dropped in the quarter by -0.02 per cent.

The last time a population decline was recorded was the year to December 1916, during World War I, at -1.0 per cent.

“We just hope that the borders can reopen in a safe and responsible way in the not-too-distant future, because we think that once they do, Australia will be more desirable than ever,” Hoffmann said.

Net overseas migration was down by 64.8 per cent driven by a lack of international arrivals, according to the ABS.

ResidentialAustraliaSector
AUTHOR
Renee McKeown
More articles by this author
ADVERTISEMENT
TOP STORIES
Exclusive

Accor Deputy Delivers Verdict on Brisbane Games Hotel Shortfall

Phil Bartsch
6 Min
Qld Budget 2025-26 Brisbane City
Exclusive

Billions Promised, Now Deliver: Industry’s Qld Budget Verdict

Vanessa Croll
6 Min
Medium Density housing in NSW
Exclusive

NSW Budget ‘Groundbreaking’ $1bn Guarantee to Unlock Housing

Leon Della Bosca
7 Min
Exclusive

Azure’s Trent Keirnan on Playing the Long Game

Taryn Paris
5 Min
Exclusive

Private Credit Surge, Skittish Buyers Force Banks to Loosen Presale Rules

Taryn Paris
5 Min
View All >
TimePlace Manly shoptop
Construction

Time & Place Plans Second Manly Project as First Begins

Vanessa Croll
Ledlin Developments Somerville Business Park
Industrial

Ledlin Plots $13m Somerville Premium Business Park

Leon Della Bosca
King William Road City of Unley Corner of Mary Street and King William Road North
Planning

Rezoning Push to Unlock $300m Scheme at SA’s Unley

Leon Della Bosca
A council depot and post office site have been earmarked as the epicentre of Adelaide’s next development hotspot...
LATEST
TimePlace Manly shoptop
Construction

Time & Place Plans Second Manly Project as First Begins

Vanessa Croll
2 Min
Ledlin Developments Somerville Business Park
Industrial

Ledlin Plots $13m Somerville Premium Business Park

Leon Della Bosca
3 Min
King William Road City of Unley Corner of Mary Street and King William Road North
Planning

Rezoning Push to Unlock $300m Scheme at SA’s Unley

Leon Della Bosca
4 Min
Not-for-profit BaptistCare is about to embark on one of its biggest projects to date, a 6.4ha development in Sydney’s north west with a capital investment value exceeding $2 billion.
Placemaking

BaptistCare Plans $2bn Precinct at Macquarie Park

Renee McKeown
2 Min
View All >
ADVERTISEMENT
Article originally posted at: https://theurbandeveloper.com/articles/experts-eye-end-of-homebuilder