The HIA New Homes Sales Report, a survey of Australia's largest volume builders, reveals that while sales volumes are off their peak they are still holding up relatively well.
"New home sales are not far below their historically high peak, consistent with only a moderate decline in dwelling commencements in the short term," said HIA Chief Economist Dr Harley Dale. "Within the aggregate profile, detached house sales are up over the three months to October in all three eastern seaboard states."The latest update - for October 2015- reveals a decline of 3.0 per cent in total seasonally adjusted new home sales. Detached house sales fell by 4.1 per cent while the sale of 'multi-units' notched up a 1.0 per cent gain.
"New dwelling commencements have increased over three consecutive years to a record high. Leading indicators like new home sales and ABS building approvals suggest a fourth healthy year in 2015/16," noted Harley Dale. "That's an impressive outlook which will remain of considerable value for the wider Australian economy, given that a peak in new housing tends to be immediately followed by a sharp decline.""The risk will emerge ahead of 2016/17. The lagged effect of slowing population growth and the unprecedented uncertainty around higher rise construction is unfortunately being exacerbated by higher variable mortgage costs and a broader reach for investor credit rationing than required."In the month of October 2015 detached house sales declined in four out of the five maintained states. Detached house sales fell by 9.3 per cent in Victoria, 5.4 per cent in Western Australia, 0.9 per cent in Queensland and 0.8 per cent in New South Wales. Detached house sales increased by 2.6 per cent in South Australia.