Pressure Grows as Australia’s Population Surges Again

More than half-a-million arrivals from overseas have driven another surge in Australia’s population—2.5 per cent in a year—fresh data has revealed.

The national population grew by 659,800 people, enough to fill the MCG more than 6½ times, to 26.8 million in the year to the end of September, 2023, according to latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

ABS head of demography Beidar Cho said that net overseas migration was behind 83 per cent of the annual population growth— 548,800 people—while natural increases accounted for the remaining 17 per cent.

“Net overseas migration grew by 60 per cent compared to the previous year, driven by an increase in overseas migration arrivals (up 34 per cent), predominantly on a temporary visa for work or study,” Cho said.

With 765,900 overseas migration arrivals and 217,100 departures, net overseas migration was 548,800 people during the year ending September 20, 2023.

There were 295,000 births and 183,900 deaths registered in Australia during the 12-month period for a natural increase of 111,000 people, 3.9 per cent less than the previous year.

Overseas migration has now increased by 145,000 over the first three months of this financial year. In December, the Federal Government said it would get migration down to 375,000 for the financial year.

Annual population change to 30 September 2023

▲ Source: ABS

“Western Australia had the fastest-growing population, up 3.3 per cent compared to the previous year,” Cho said.

“This was followed by Victoria, up 2.9 per cent, and Queensland which grew by 2.7 per cent.”

Tasmania had the least growth—0.3 per cent during the same period.

Annual population growth

▲ Source: ABS

In the September quarter, 145,200 people arrived from overseas, an increase of 21,800 or 16.3 per cent on the previous quarter.

Natural increase for the quarter was 27,400 people, up 2500 (9.8 per cent) compared to the previous quarter.

Australia’s population had reached 26.8 million more than a decade ahead of the Australian Government forecast, HIA chief economist Tim Reardon said.

“The Intergenerational Report in 2007 projected that Australia’s population would not reach 26.8 million until 2034-35,” Reardon said.

“Underestimation of population growth is a systemic policy failure that compounds the challenge of delivering sufficient housing.

“The ABS projected the national population to reach 26.9 million by the mid-2024, a figure that had been exceeded by the time their announcement was released in November 2023.

“An investment in improving ABS data collection, especially around land and population, could have a greater impact on housing supply than other Australian government initiatives.”

▲ The jobless rate has declined, albeit it marginally.

Jobless rate shade lower

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7 per cent in February, the ABS said.

ABS head of labour statistics Bjorn Jarvis said with employment growing by around 116,000 people, and the number of unemployed falling by 52,000 people, the unemployment rate fell to 3.7 per cent.

Jarvis said this was around where it had been six months earlier.

The increase in employment in February followed a weaker-than-usual outcome in December (-62,000), and a modest increase in January (15,000).

This equates to 70,000 more employed people in February than there were in November and a growth rate consistent with the underlying trend.

The large increase in employment in February followed larger-than-usual numbers of people in December and January who had a job that they were waiting to start or to return to. This translated into a larger-than-usual flow of people into employment in February and even more so than February last year.

“In 2022 and 2023, around 4.3 per cent of employed people in February had not been employed in January. In 2024 this was higher, at 4.7 per cent, and well above the pre-pandemic average for 2015 to 2020 of around 3.9 per cent,” Jarvis said.

“In contrast, we again only saw around 3.1 per cent of employed people in January leaving employment by February, which was similar to last year and has remained relatively constant over time.

 “This shows that there is a wider gap than we would usually see between the numbers of people entering employment and leaving employment.”