The Urban Developer
AdvertiseEventsWebinars
Urbanity
Awards
Sign In
Membership
Latest
Menu
Location
Sector
Category
Content
Type
Newsletters
FINAL CHANCE TO REGISTER FOR URBANITY-25 JOIN MORE THAN 550 ALREADY ATTENDING
LAST CHANCE TO REGISTER FOR URBANITY 550+ ALREADY ATTENDING
REGISTER NOWDETAILS
TheUrbanDeveloper
Follow
About
About Us
Membership
Awards
Events
Webinars
Listings
Resources
Terms & Conditions
Commenting Policy
Privacy Policy
Republishing Guidelines
Editorial Charter
Complaints Handling Policy
Contact
General Enquiries
Advertise
Contribution Enquiry
Project Submission
Membership Enquiry
Newsletter
Stay up to date and with the latest news, projects, deals and features.
Subscribe
ResidentialDinah Lewis BoucherFri 05 Jun 20

House Price Outlook More Optimistic: UBS

TUD+ MEMBER CONTENT
f5ac2170-6583-4bdd-95bb-2235d4a6cb4f
SHARE
62
print
Print

UBS economists have upgraded their price forecasts for Australia’s housing market, while looking to stamp duty relief and support for build-to-rent as further reform.

UBS expects home prices to fall by between 5 and 10 per cent during the next year, an upgrade from its previous forecast of at least a 10 per cent drop.

“Resilient approvals” combined with the federal government’s home builder scheme have also prompted the investment bank’s economists, led by George Tharenou, to upgrade dwelling starts.

UBS revised its forecast for dwelling commencements to 153,000, up from 130,000 for this year.

Tharenou added that the investment bank's upgrade is more about the economy than the federal government’s $688 million stimulus, announced on Wednesday.

“We still see prices falling, but now only -5 to -10 per cent,” he said.

On Thursday, ANZ’s economists David Plank and Hayden Dimes said the bank “remains of the view” that dwelling prices will fall into 2021 due to a fall in demand from deteriorating household finances and reduced population growth.

“Government stimulus may delay this weakness, but it won’t be enough to prevent lower house prices eventually,” Dimes said.

Corelogic figures show Australia's home prices fell in May, down 0.4 per cent, but the pace of decline was less than expected.

“However, a negative factor for investors is rents will face further weakness, as first home buyers exit the rental market, and migration demand stays weak, at least until next year,” Tharenou said.

While the housing stimulus package was smaller than flagged, Tharenou said there’s talk of more to come, particularly from state governments, such as stamp duty relief or support for build-to-rent.

UBS says the latest package will largely favour detached housing, given the short timeframe of the stimulus, rather than multi-dwelling projects such as apartments and townhouse complexes.

The economists expect housing stock to be “resilient” at 96,000, while multi-dwelling projects are forecast to slump to 54,000 from 104,000 in 2018, before recovering in 2021.

The outlook for Australia's dwelling commencements in 2021 remains unrevised at 170,000.

The unemployment forecast is less severe at 10 per cent, in comparison to its previous 10.5 per cent forecast, although unemployment figures “may not reach that level if momentum continues”.

Due to border closures, UBS expects estimated "underlying demand" to temporarily slump from 200,000 to 130,000 in late 2020 with migration levels paused.

ABS figures, released Wednesday, show dwelling approvals fared better than expected in April, although building approvals data is not expected to reflect the Covid-19 impact until August.


ResidentialAustraliaReal EstateSector
AUTHOR
Dinah Lewis Boucher
More articles by this author
ADVERTISEMENT
TOP STORIES
Warren and Mahoney Western Bulldogs Women's Health and Leadership Hub HERO
Exclusive

Beyond the Boys’ Club: Inclusive Architecture Disrupting Sporting Precincts

Leon Della Bosca
7 Min
Exclusive

Inside the $10m Heritage Refit of Sydney’s $25,000-a-Year Members’ Club

Taryn Paris
4 Min
Kurraba Point 93 Kurraba Road TUD PLUS
Residential

Council Over Court: How HFO Won Rare North Sydney Approval

Vanessa Croll
7 Min
Exclusive

Why Sentinel is Betting Big on Olympic City Office Sector

Phil Bartsch
5 Min
The Port of Brisbane has released its Vision 2060 which details the need for inland rail connectivity
Infrastructure

Brisbane Port’s $15bn Future Faces One Big Obstacle

Renee McKeown
5 Min
View All >
Development

Zen Group’s West End Towers Greenlit

Taryn Paris
Warren and Mahoney Western Bulldogs Women's Health and Leadership Hub HERO
Exclusive

Beyond the Boys’ Club: Inclusive Architecture Disrupting Sporting Precincts

Leon Della Bosca
Goldfields Kyneton Central Edgecombe Road precinct rendering
Development

Goldfields Forges Ahead on $150m Kyneton Central Hub

Leon Della Bosca
Bunnings, McDonald’s to anchor $70m first stage at Kyneton Central, with the developer weeks from announcing major tenan…
LATEST
Development

Zen Group’s West End Towers Greenlit

Taryn Paris
2 Min
Warren and Mahoney Western Bulldogs Women's Health and Leadership Hub HERO
Exclusive

Beyond the Boys’ Club: Inclusive Architecture Disrupting Sporting Precincts

Leon Della Bosca
7 Min
Goldfields Kyneton Central Edgecombe Road precinct rendering
Development

Goldfields Forges Ahead on $150m Kyneton Central Hub

Leon Della Bosca
3 Min
An aerial view of Ipswich, whose suburb Springfield Lakes, had the highest number of house sales for Queensland in Q2, 2025.
Residential

Ipswich Suburb Leads Queensland House Sales

Marisa Wikramanayake
5 Min
View All >
ADVERTISEMENT
Article originally posted at: https://www.theurbandeveloper.com/articles/ubs-upgrades-property-prices-unemployment-approvals