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The top areas for population growth in Melbourne and regional Victoria, and best places for residential development in the next 25 years, have been revealed.
The state government has released the Victoria in Future dataset that shows the areas expected to grow most were those with the greatest capacity for new homes.
In the metropolitan area this was Wyndham, Melton, Casey, Hume and Whittlesea, while in regional Victoria Greater Geelong, Ballarat, Greater Bendigo, Baw Baw and Moorabool topped the list.
Meanwhile, the government areas that would record the fastest growth to 2036 were Mitchell at 6 per cent, Melton 4.5 per cent, Wyndham 3.2 per cent, Melbourne 3.1 per cent and Cardinia 2.7 per cent.
Regionally, Moorabool would grow by 2.7 per cent, Baw Baw by 2.1 per cent, Golden Plains 2.1 per cent, Greater Geelong 2.1 per cent and Surf Coast by 1.6 per cent.
Victoria’s population is expected to grow by 3.5 million people by 2051 with net migration to account for 66 per cent of that growth.
“The projections give an idea of what is likely to happen if current trends continue,” the report said.
“They are developed using mathematical models and expert knowledge, relying on trend analysis and assumptions about future change.
“The population of Melbourne will increase strongly through net overseas migration as over 90 per cent of overseas migrants to Victoria are expected to settle there.
“But Melbourne is also expected to retain strong natural increase throughout the projection period.
“In contrast, the main driver of growth in regional Victoria will be migration from Melbourne.
“It is projected that population ageing and the increasing numbers of deaths in regional Victoria will result in lower levels of natural increase in regional Victoria.”
However, the number of households will grow at a faster rate than the population as the average household size is expected to decrease.
The average household size was predicted to drop from 2.52 in 2023 to 2.43 in 2051, and while the population would age, the continued migration of young adults would slow the ageing rate.
