What to Expect in November 2017: CoreLogic


National dwelling values remained unchanged over the month of October, the weakest monthly result since 2016.

The combined capital cities and the combined regional markets recorded no change in values over the month with falls recorded in Sydney, Darwin and Canberra and values unchanged in Adelaide and Perth.

According to the CoreLogic Home Value Index, there was a clear slowdown in the rate of growth in dwelling values. Over the September quarter, national values fell in Sydney (-0.6%), Perth (-0.7%) and Darwin (-4.4%). The quarterly fall in Sydney dwelling values is the greatest since March 2016.

Sydney’s housing market is slowing on the back of heightened stock available for sale, stretched affordability, increasing number of residents moving interstate and a pull-back in investor housing demand (investors have been the greatest source of housing demand in Sydney over recent years).

[Related reading: Sydney House Prices Fall as National Growth Conditions Remain Flat]

Dwelling value increases

were recorded in Melbourne (+1.9%), Brisbane (+0.6%), Hobart (+3.3%) and Canberra (+1.1%).

CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher said over the 12 months to October 2017, national dwelling values have increased by 6.6 per cent with the combined capital cities recording increases of 7.0 per cent and combined regional markets seeing values increased by 4.9 per cent.

Value growth in Melbourne has also slowed however, albeit much more moderately than in Sydney. This is likely due to a number of factors including the cost of housing, interstate migration to Victoria and investor demand in Sydney.

Brisbane and Adelaide continued to see moderate growth however, with migration lifting into south-east Queensland this may lead to a rise in the rate of value growth over the coming year however, economic performance and job creation will also be an important ingredient to any acceleration of value growth.

Perth and Darwin have continued to see values fall over the year. Perth looks as if it is closer to a market bottom than Darwin however, sales volumes have increased across both cities while values have not declined in Perth over the past two months.

Hobart is now the strongest performing capital city housing market in the nation

. Increasing migration to Tasmania, affordable housing and an improving economy along with very limited supply of stock for sale is a key driver of the acceleration in value growth over the past year.

Canberra dwelling values are increasing at a faster annual pace than they were a year ago however, over recent months the rate of growth has slowed. This is most likely linked to the fact that the volume of housing stock available for sale across the city is now substantially higher than it was 12 months ago.

The unchanged national index in October represented the weakest monthly change in value since March 2016 -- a time when the first round of tighter APRA credit policies was still working its way through the market. The rate of value growth also slowed over the month across the combined capital cities and the combined regional markets.

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