Warren Ebert isn’t one for sugarcoating.
The managing director of Sentinel Property Group calls it as he sees it and for property in 2025, he sees opportunity and chaos.
From high-rise headaches to CBD bargains, Ebert’s take on the year ahead is a must-hear for anyone in the game.
He’ll be sharing his views at The Urban Developer’s South-East Queensland Property and Economic Outlook in February alongside George Mastrocostas (Aniko Group), in front of 250-plus property professionals.
With less than 50 tickets left, now’s the time to jump in.
Here’s a preview of Ebert’s no-nonsense outlook for the year ahead.
The residential reality: high-rise challenges and outer suburb prospects
Ebert pulls no punches about Queensland’s high-rise residential market. “It’s a mess,” he said, citing soaring construction costs that show no signs of slowing. With the Brisbane Olympics fueling a significant pipeline of projects, the challenges for developers are only mounting.
“The only projects that make financial sense are owner-occupier developments, where buyers can handle costs north of $30,000 per square metre,” he said. “For investors, it’s a much tougher proposition.”
On the flipside, Ebert sees opportunity in existing stock. “If you can buy decent-quality units in the CBD for under $8000 per square metre, jump on it. I’ve bought at $6000 per square metre—it’s a smart play.”
Detached housing in growth corridors such as Caboolture West and Ripley Valley will continue, but labour shortages loom large. “Experts estimate we need another 34,000 tradies to meet demand, but where are they going to live?” Ebert said.
Retail recovery: a quiet boom
Regional and sub-regional shopping centres have bounced back strongly, Ebert said. “The market bottomed mid-last year, and yields have tightened by 1 per cent in just six months,” he said.
Investors are recognising the value in these assets, with quality properties available for well below replacement cost.
“We picked up a centre for $280 million, but its replacement cost is over $700 million,” Ebert said. “Population growth is driving demand, yet there’s very little new development apart from essentials like Woolworths or Coles stores and a handful of specialties.”
Office: a tale of three cities
Ebert said the office sector’s fortunes depended heavily on geography. “Melbourne’s CBD is struggling with 20 per cent vacancy rates and no signs of improvement—it’s out of play for the next decade,” he said.
Sydney, however, appears to have bottomed out, with high-net-worth investors and major players such as the Lowy family making strategic purchases. In Brisbane, the outlook is even brighter.
“Vacancy rates here are low and dropping. If you can buy in Brisbane, do it with your ears pinned back,” he said.
Opportunities and challenges in 2025
Ebert identifies CBD and fringe office assets as the standout opportunities for 2025, particularly those trading at steep discounts to replacement cost. “We’re seeing properties going for about 50 per cent of what it would cost to build them today,” he said.
In the industrial sector, Sentinel’s early investments are paying off. “We bought land in Newcastle at $35 per sq m three years ago, and today it’s retailing for $600 to $900 per square metre,” he said.
“We’ll build spec sheds there because we’ve already made our money on the land. But at current land prices, making a new project viable is nearly impossible.”
Interest rates: a silver lining
Ebert sees higher interest rates as an unlikely ally. “I’m actually hoping rates stay high a bit longer—it keeps competitors out of the market,” he said.
Sentinel has been on an acquisition spree, spending $250 million last year, with two-thirds of that in the final months. By February’s end, the group will have invested another $70 million at acquisition yields exceeding 9 per cent.
Looking ahead, Ebert is targeting another $500 million in purchases before the market shifts. “It’s shaping up to be a fantastic year,” he said.
Want to hear more?
Warren Ebert will share more of his insights at The Urban Developer South-East Queensland Property and Economic Outlook in February. Other speakers joining him ont he panel include George Mastrocostas, managing director of Aniko Group.
Event Details:
Topic: South-East Queensland Property and Economic Outlook 2025
Date: Thursday, 13 February
Time: 8am to 10am
Location: The Calile Hotel, Fortitude Valley, Brisbane
Learn more: Click here to learn more
Want to attend in Melbourne or Sydney?
Join us in Melbourne or Sydney and hear from each city’s leading developers to explore the trends, opportunities and challenges in the year ahead in each region.
Melbourne | February 20 | Click here
Sydney | February 27 | Click here
