Weak Market Conditions to Impact House Prices: Report
National dwelling values were down for the twelfth consecutive month according to property consultant Corelogic's national hedonic home value index.
Sydney property values continue to fall, slipping 6.1 per cent over the past year while Melbourne home values dropped 3.4 per cent to become the nation's weakest housing market.
Melbourne's dwelling values fell 2.0 per cent over the three months ending August, the weakest rolling quarterly result since the three months ending January 2012.
National values are down 2.7 per cent since peaking 12 months ago with the weakest housing market conditions concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne
Corelogic’s head of research Tim Lawless said the downturn had been “driven almost entirely by heightened levels of regulation across the finance sector”, which were having more of an impact at the top end of the market.
“With the release of the banking commission interim report, there is a chance that already tight credit conditions could tighten even further,” Lawless said.
Change in dwelling values
| City | Month | Quarter | Annual | Total Return | Median Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | -0.6% | -1.5% | -6.1% | -3.2% | $847,948 |
| Melbourne | -0.9% | -2.4% | -3.4% | -0.5% | $697,457 |
| Brisbane | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 4.9% | $495,474 |
| Adelaide | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 4.9% | $438,570 |
| Perth | -0.6% | -2.0% | -2.8% | 1.0% | $452,138 |
| Hobart | 0.4% | 0.3% | 9.3% | 4.7% | $443,711 |
| Darwin | -0.4% | 0.1% | -3.7% | 1.8% | $436,936 |
| Canberra | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 6.6% | $598,326 |
Over September, Sydney, Perth, Darwin and Adelaide recorded price falls, while Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart reported modest prices gains.
Dwelling values tracked lower across five of the eight capital cities in September while five of the seven “rest of state” regions recorded a fall in values over the month.
Fewer active buyers within the market has also led to higher inventory levels and reduced competition in the market.
Collectively, these factors have been compounded by affordability challenges, reduced foreign investment and a rise in housing supply.
“This is hardly a crash, and a slower rate of decline relative to the previous housing market downturn between June 2010 to February 2012 when national dwelling values fell by 3.0 per cent over the first twelve months, declining 6.5 per cent from peak to trough,” Lawless said.
Change in dwelling values
“Considering Sydney and Melbourne comprise approximately 60 per cent of the national value of housing, the weak conditions in these cities have a substantial drag down effect on the overall national housing market performance.”
Regional markets have also starting to weaken, with falls across New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia over the quarter.
Regional areas of the mining states continue to deliver the most significant drag on growth rates, with values down 3.5 per cent over the past three months across regional WA and 1.0 per cent lower across regional Queensland.
The combined regional dwelling values were down 0.2 per cent in September and 0.9 per cent for the quarter, but posted an annual gain of 1.2 per cent.
