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House prices in Australia’s capital cities increased or held steady in the first quarter of 2020, but experts say the full impact of the coronavirus on the property market is yet to be felt.
Economic modelling released by Victoria’s department of Treasury and Finance on Wednesday forecast that Victoria's property prices could fall by 9 per cent from March to December, releasing a draft of stimulus measures on Friday.
While Covid-19 will continue to disrupt the housing market, the latest analysis by People’s Choice Credit Union shows Victoria’s top areas for both affordability and liveability.
“The coronavirus has certainly affected real estate,” People’s Choice chief executive Steve Laidlaw said of the analysis.
“But now is a great time to research the market for when things return to something more normal.”
| Rank | Suburb | Median house price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montmorency | $839,000 |
| 2 | Burnside | $618,500 |
| 3 | Gowanbrae | $699,000 |
| 4 | Watsonia North | $741,500 |
| 5 | Noble Park North | $606,000 |
| 6 | Seabrook | $626,500 |
| 7 | Ringwood North | $883,300 |
| 8 | Avondale Heights | $815,000 |
| 9 | Sydenham | $576,500 |
| 10 | Oak Park | $912,500 |
| 11 | St Helena | $921,000 |
| 12 | Yallambie | $861,000 |
| 13 | Taylors Hill | $702,750 |
| 14 | Wattle Glen | $805,000 |
| 15 | Croydon North | $849,000 |
| 16 | Briar Hill | $828,800 |
| 17 | Viewbank | $955,000 |
| 18 | Seddon | $950,000 |
| 19 | Chelsea Heights | $750,000 |
| 20 | Burnside Heights | $600,000 |
* Suburbs are only included if a couple on average incomes and spending is likely to be able to get finance for a median-priced home. The suburb is then judged on liveability factors – including access to a public transport, driveability, crime rates, schools, economic prospects, local services, and an analysis on how settled the community is.
Reserve Bank governor Phil Lowe warned Australia is facing the worst economic contraction since the 1930s in his update on Tuesday.
By June, Lowe said that national economic output was likely to fall by 10 per cent, total hours worked would fall 20 per cent and the unemployment rate could reach 10 per cent.
To date, Covid-19 restriction measures have impacted listings volumes and real estate agent activity, but Corelogic’s Eliza Owen said the value of dwellings has, so far, been relatively resilient according to latest Corelogic figures.
“It is still likely that property values will fall amid the downturn. But the decline in momentum across property values has been relatively mild relative to what has happened in market activity,” Owen said.
Earlier this month, UBS revised its forecasts to a decline of at least 10 per cent in house prices over the coming year.
| Rank | Suburb | Median Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ormond | $525,000 |
| 2 | Caulfield North | $537,500 |
| 3 | Hawthorn East | $653,750 |
| 4 | Mont Albert | $710,000 |
| 5 | Hughesdale | $627,000 |
| 6 | Glen Iris | $698,500 |
| 7 | Surrey Hills | $803,000 |
| 8 | Glen Huntly | $565,500 |
| 9 | Hawthorn | $570,000 |
| 10 | Murrumbeena | $619,321 |
| 11 | Bulleen | $583,000 |
| 12 | St Kilda East | $575,125 |
| 13 | Elsternwick | $600,000 |
| 14 | Oak Park | $653,750 |
| 15 | Mckinnon | $785,000 |
| 16 | Sydenham | $437,500 |
| 17 | Seddon | $702,000 |
| 18 | Alphington | $675,500 |
| 19 | Montmorency | $736,000 |
| 20 | West Footscray | $520,000 |
According to the Peoples Choice analysis, Burnside in Melbourne’s west ranks second for homebuyers with a median price of $618,500 and a liveability ranking of 76, followed by Gowanbrae which ranks third.
“Noble Park North ranks at fifth spot, another more affordable suburb at $606,000 which equates to about $650 a week in repayments but it is that little further out at 25 kilometres,” Laidlow said.
The report analyses data on 474 suburbs across Victoria, shortlisting 50 that ranked for both affordability and liveability.
“In other words, you may be able to buy in a suburb, but would you really want to live there?” Laidlaw said.
“Some suburbs have high prices and high liveability, but right next to them on the list can be under-appreciated areas that are very worthy of attention.”
“Ormond topped the list as the fifth-highest suburb for liveability and a palatable ranking of 142 for affordability for units,” Laidlaw said.
“With a median sale price which has dropped recently to $525,000, Ormond is the most affordable suburb in our top 10 but still ticks a lot of boxes with good results for schools, transport, local facilities, and public safety.”
| Suburb | Region | Median House Price |
|---|---|---|
| Sydenham | West | $576,500 |
| Burnside Heights | West | $600,000 |
| Delahey | West | $545,000 |
| Kalkallo | North | $547,500 |
| Dallas | North | $457,500 |
| Kings Park | West | $511,500 |
| Weir Views | West | $455,000 |
| Albanvale | West | $511,750 |
| Roxburgh Park | North | $555,000 |
| Hoppers Crossing | West | $531,000 |
Sydenham, Burnside Heights and Delahey show the best mix of affordability and liveability for would be homebuyers planning to access federal government’s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme.
The data shows Melbourne suburbs which qualify for the scheme due to a median house price of $600,000 or less.
“Of the suburbs which qualify for the scheme, the top three – Sydenham, Burnside Heights and Delahey – are all in the west and all about 20 kilometres from the GPO but Sydenham stands out for its excellent public transport options and number of licensed venues,” Laidlaw said.
“Burnside Heights is helped into second thanks to a lower crime rate, while Delahey enjoys a more affordable median price of $545,000.”
Related: Victoria Unveils $500m Land Tax and Rent Relief Package
